A Lib Dem win in Horsham: Colgate & Rusper
The first test of the will to take the proposed Sussex Mayoralty was a win for the Liberal Democrat’s Hannah Butler on 17th April. She took 30% of the vote to the Tories’ 27%.
The Liberal Democrats had come second in May 2023, 154 votes behind the second Tory (it is a two-member ward). Reform UK didn’t contest the ward in that year, and whilst the Tory votes fell from 681/639, Labour’s decline (from 221 to 53) was equally dramatic. Reform UK only contested two wards in 2023 but did come third in the 2024 general election. Reform UK’s predecessor had given the Tories a clean run in 2019, but their candidate had previously stood for UKIP. The Green Party also performed well.
What are the lessons? Horsham District Council is controlled by the Liberal Democrats, as well as John Milne winning the parliamentary seat, so an endorsement. There is also a strong Green Party presence on the DC. Reform UK’s vote was significant in John Milne’s victory, so a good consolidation there. Reform UK perhaps not as well organised in Sussex as elsewhere? But nothing to be complacent about, nor the Green Party, whom pollsters tend to underestimate.
